MAGAZINE  №4 (99) August 2020


CATEGORY  Information technologies in logistics and SCM Logistics service management Optimization and mathematical modelling Simulation modelling



In recent years, both in Russia and worldwide, there has been an annual increase in the number of museum visitors with the most popular exhibitions being visited by millions of people. In 2020, in the context of quarantine measures caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, the issue of managing museum visitors flows has become especially acute. If earlier museums throughput was limited by the maximum duration of possible evacuation from a museum building, exhibition space and the number of employees working with the visitors, in 2020, due to the observance of sanitary and epidemiological rules, the throughput of museums was further reduced. This determines the relevance of analytical solutions for museums as in order to manage visitor flows and adapt services to the high demand, it is necessary to have an effective forecasting model that takes into account the determinism of demand by a number of factors. The purpose of this paper is to develop a forecasting model for the number of excursion groups in specification museum-day-hour. A modification of random forest with the inclusion of more than 450 independent variables in the model is proposed as a forecasting method. The modification of the model relies on changing the mechanism for combining forecasts of trees in the forest in such a way that the weight of the tree in the model is inversely proportional to the measurement error of this tree. The proposed model is tested on the basis of data on more than 20,000 excursion groups of the State Russian Museum for the period 2018-2020. The proposed model showed high accuracy (36.6% WAPE and 0.5% BIAS).


 Electronic version

 Keywords:  forecasting machine learning random forest combining forecasts Python forecast museum Service service quality

MAGAZINE  №5 (95) December 2019


CATEGORY  Logistic infrastructure Transportation in logistics



 Organization of transportation significantly affects the performance indicators of logistics systems. Therefore, more and more attention are paid to the development of organizational and managerial measures, the implementation of which helps to reduce delivery time, to ensure their reliability at an economically viable total cost based on digital technologies.
Automated management of the entire transport and logistics system of the port is becoming a mandatory requirement to ensure high-quality logistics in the supply chains. It is the precise organization of the logistics process that contains significant resources to reduce costs, increase speed, as well as reliability and quality of supply chains, but without the synergy of logistics and information technology, this is not possible.
The aim of the study is to increase the efficiency of the seaport and the provided port services by coordinating the flow processes formed by all participants in legal relations arising in the process of transshipment and processing of cargo in the seaport. In the formation of the reliability and quality of transport services, to which port services can be fully attributed, basically two methodological approaches are used: a process and a system approach.
The article focuses on the role and importance of seaports, as well as the formation of the quality of port services based on the application of the process approach. A classification of port services is proposed, which implies a wider list of classification features that consider the role and place of port services in the technological process of port operation. The analysis of the main technological processes associated with the passage of state control procedures in the seaport. The necessity of developing a unified network technological process of the seaport is identified and the principles of its formation are described.
The results of the study allow us to conclude that the interaction between all participants in the technological process of cargo handling in the seaport is low, which negatively affects the quality of port services and the competitiveness of the port. The development of a unified network technological process of the seaport will allow us to systematize the main processes of the seaport and to reveal the systemic links between them, which ensures stable and efficient operation of the port, as well as the interaction between the flows of information, cargo and transport.

 Electronic version

 Keywords: port sea port sea transport service quality process modeling process approach technology technological process



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