MAGAZINE №3 (74) June 2016

AUTHOR 

PENZEV V.N.

KULAKOV V.N. - Manager of product distribution, LLC "IRWIN 2" (Moscow, Russia)

CATEGORY Optimization and economic-mathematical modeling Planning the supply chain 

ABSTRACT

The deterioration of the economic situation in the world and destabilization of many sectors of the economy create absolutely new conditions for the work to various companies to which they have to adapt. The task of increasing the efficiency of using resources in the current economic environment is extremely relevant, and interest to the forecasting as a tool and one of the stages of the planning process is growing constantly. This article considers a classical method of seasonal decomposition of time series. It is also presented a modified method of seasonal decomposition of time series. The main objective of the creation of the modified method was to increase the flexibility of the forecasting by highlighting the target optimization parameter. This allows managers to create different forecast scenarios. The example of forecasting sales product groups was considered for both classical and modified models. The main features and differences between methods were either described. The quality of the sales forecast was assessed and results obtained by both forecasting methods were compared. According to the results, the modified model has shown the best results in comparison with the classical one.

 Keywords:   

• sales forecasting
 
• seasonal decomposition
 
• time series
 
• modified method
 
• scenario modeling