Model of Delivery Time Determination in Conditions of Demand Uncertainty

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MAGAZINE №4(87) August 2018


KOSORUKOV O.A. - Doctor of Tech.Sci., Professor, Graduate School of Management and Innovation Lomonosov State Moscow University (Moscow, Russia)

MASLOV S.E. - Commercial Director, Prodimeks Ltd. (Moscow, Russia)

CATEGORY  Optimization and mathematical modelling Inventory management


In Russia, most trading enterprises in the management of commodity stocks are guided by average demand and supply duration, and only some large companies use logistics processes modelling that increases the efficiency and effectiveness of their operations, reducing the costs of storage and deficit.

The article presents a model of inventory management, namely, determining the optimal delivery time, considering demand uncertainty. As a criterion of efficiency, a criterion of minimizing integral costs is considered, considering the costs of surplus stocks and the costs of the lack of goods in the warehouse. As a law of random demand volume distribution, triangular distribution is considered being one of the most applicable under conditions of insufficient statistical data. The economic-mathematical model under consideration allows to optimize the moment of delivery provided that risks are minimized, based on the statistical data on the demand for the goods over the previous period, or if such data are not available - to use expert estimates. The data are sufficient for constructing the probability distribution for a random quantity of demand.

The model allows, under random demand, to determine the day of delivery of a new shipment in a certain volume, provided that the risks are minimized. In the case of triangular distribution, this optimization problem has an analytic solution confined to formula evaluation.

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