The Efficiency of High-Speed «Moscow – Adler» Railway Construction
MAGAZINE №5 (82) October 2017
AUTHORS
BYKADOROV S.A. - Doctor of Ec.Sc., Professor, Department of System Analysis and Project Management, Siberian State Transport University (Novosibirsk, Russia)
VYSOKIKH A.A. - Magistrant, National Research University Higher School of Economics (Moscow, Russia)
CATEGORY Global logistics projects Logistic infrastructure Transportation in logistics Megapolis logistics
ABSTRACT
The project of high-speed “Moscow-Adler” railway line (HSR) construction is described considering the stages of putting into operation, planned funding and project development plans. The significance of such large-scale infrastructure investment projects is shown, with their national scale and implementation strategically important for the country’s development. The plans of the HSR construction in Russia for the period until 2030 are described .High-speed railway transportation was compared to its main competitor among the various transport modes– air transport in general and Moscow-Adler direction in particular.
Various options of the HSR-3 construction are analyzed, the construction costs estimation is carried out and the optimal option including all possible benefits of the route. The shortest distance to the points of passenger traffic formation was taken as a criterion for its location choice. The cost of the optimal option is 1,718 trillion rubles, the route length is1500,1 km.
Financial efficiency of the project under the optimal option of the route construction is assessed , traffic flow and the average length path of the passenger are predicted, the return cash flow and the net present value to the end of the 12th year of the project are calculated. The conclusion based on financial efficiency assessment is that the project will not reach the payback period, and the net present value of the project will remain at the level of –386 million rubles, as well as the fact that such indicator is not sensitive to the change of the most variables that involved in its calculation, except the amount of the investments.
Both public and multiplicative effects of the HSR construction and operation as well as its impact on the country’s economy are described.
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