Modeling Adaptive Supply Chain Management
MAGAZINE №5 (100) October 2020
AUTHORS ANDRONOV S.A., YARTSEVA A.A.
CATEGORY Simulation modelling Supply chains reliability and sustainability The uncertainty and risks in supply chains Supply chain management
ABSTRACT
Supply chain enterprises operate under the influence of many uncertain factors, such as, for example, fluctuations in demand, instability of supply, competitors' activity, weather conditions, etc. These issues in real supply chains are the responsibility of managers or of a provider firm.
When modeling processes in supply chains, coordination and adaptation functions are taken over by the corresponding blocks of the chain model. This study is devoted to the topical problem of improving the efficiency of the chain, taking into account the factors noted, namely, the study of management models for adaptive supply chains.
Due to the stochastic nature of the supply chain environment, modeling typically uses a simulation approach. Studies have shown that models that do not include self-organization blocks are not able to provide the required quality of management in conditions of uncertainty. Therefore, for adaptation at the operational level, it is proposed to consider the agent model in combination with the most appropriate methods of the automatic control theory. The presence of the human factor in supply chain management implies the presence of inertia inherent in people, which determined the applied principles: "quick response" - inertia and predictive nature when smoothing demand fluctuations to control the level of production, a fuzzy logical conclusion as a "soft" regulation inherent in humans, as well as error control based on the PID controller.
The model implemented in the Anylogic program has shown the effectiveness of applying the considered control methods under conditions of uncertainty and stochasticity of the parameters of the external environment. So, for example, the application of the quick response principle ensures the stability of the chain at the given levels of the studied impacts. So, in particular, in the framework of combined management, the model showed the best result - no more than 10% of outstanding orders. The addition of a continuous inventory control module to the model made it possible to reduce the failure rate by an average of 50%. The greatest effect is achieved as a result of the use of integrated control which takes into account the simultaneous change in the parameters of the chain links.
The considered control algorithms can be tested on empirical data of a specific chain, applied in the development of digital twins of chains, used by the provider as a means of automating the real supply chain management.
Keywords: supply chains uncertainty simulation AnyLogic control theory fuzzy logic
Dynamic Models of Production-Finance Activity of Enterprises in Conditions of Uncertainties and Risk
MAGAZINE №1 (90) February 2019
AUTHORS MISHCHENKO A.V., SOLODOVNIKOV V.V.
CATEGORY Optimization and mathematical modelling The uncertainty and risks in supply chains
ABSTRACT
The problem of optimal management of various types of production resources in conditions of uncertainty and risk taking into account reworks is relevant and necessary to ensure the competitiveness of modern domestic industrial enterprises.
The paper deals with dynamic models of management of production resources of the enterprise, which provide maximum profit from the sale of products produced for a certain period of time, taking into account the risk, taking into account waste and reworks on technological operations of the industrial enterprise. The analysis of stability in models of management of production and financial activities of the enterprise is carried out. In conclusion, an example of calculation of the management of production and financial activities of a small enterprise which assemblies system blocks of personal computers is analyzed.
Scientific survey is based on fundamental and applied developments of domestic and foreign scientists in the field of economic theory, management theory, logistics theory and supply chain management, methods of mathematical modeling, system analysis, operations research and expert evaluation methods.
The considered dynamic models of management of production and financial activities of the enterprise allow estimating efficiency of use of production and financial assets of the enterprise in the conditions of uncertainty and risk taking into account waste and rework.
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Entropy as a measure of the uncertainty of demand in XYZ-model ranking and grouping of resources
MAGAZINE №1 (60) February 2014
AUTHOR ZAYTSEV E.I.
CATEGORY Optimization and economic-mathematical modeling Uncertainty and risk in the supply chain Inventory management
ABSTRACT
In paper the algorithm of perfection classical XYZ-analysis of stocks in logistics is considered. Feature of algorithm is ranging the goods is ranging the goods on accuracy of the forecast. Other feature of algorithm is application of an entropy for definition of uncertainty of demand. It is given an example XYZ - the analysis.
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